Before we start, I want to put this right out there in the open…I don’t like Iowa.  I’m going to try to be objective here, because being objective tells the story of how fucking lucky these frauds were last year and that I’m not entirely sure* they’re deserving of such a lofty ranking.

*100% positive

So, with that in mind, bear with me as I slog through this while trying not to break down into wholesale “bash Iowa” mode.  And hopefully Iowa fans don’t swarm this place and rip me to shreds like they do to anyone who DARES say that they were pretty fucking lucky last year and that there MIGHT be even the slightest chance that the ball bounces a different way, because that’s what Iowa fans do.  They did it to Doc Saturday, they did it to Team Speed Kills and they did it to Brian Cook at mgoblog.

The Story: Iowa had a fantastic year last year.  They went 11-2 and throttled Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, capping off what might have been their best season of the decade and took the Big Ten champ to the wire.  The best word to sum up Iowa’s 2009 campaign has to be “thrilling” as seemingly every week Ricky Stanzi pulled magic out of his ass at the last minute to propel them to victory, and you know what?  It was cool.

Be it the two blocked FG’s in the opener to the cavalcade of Stanzi 4th quarter comebacks like the 28 4th quarter points against Indiana, you were in for some good ol’ footbaw entertainment when you tuned in.  Somehow, the wins just piled up, and much like “America’s Sweetheart,” Julia Roberts, it was ugly.

The defense was stout, led by a defensive line that features wrecker of men, Adrian Clayborn, as well as fellow beasts Broderick Binns, Karl Klug and Christian Ballard, and studs like Pat Angerererererererer, Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood.  The offense?  Well, it was either REALLY hot or REALLY cold, but somehow got it done.  This was a classic Big Ten team winning in classic Big Ten fashion, and it’s hard to argue in hindsight wen every ball DID bounce their way.

And in the end, the team won an impressive bowl game and heads into 2010 with some good momentum.

The Glaring Stat: 184.3…Ricky Stanzi’s 4th quarter QB efficiency, up from his relatively pedestrian 119.3 efficiency in the first three quarters.

The Outlook: Someone, ANYONE, tell me why I should believe in a team that was THISCLOSE to going 6-6.  Tell me why I should believe in a team that beat Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan and Michigan State by a combined EIGHT points.  Tell me why I should believe in a team who’s supposed strength, the defensive line, gave up over 200 yards to the best team they faced when that team didn’t even try to pass downfield.

How can you be confident in a team like this?  When you look at all the close calls against inferior opponents and consider that almost the entire offensive line and linebacking corps need to be replaced, how the hell do you know what you’re going to get from this team?  Hell, even their performances last year were completely bipolar with the team looking like garbage and worldbeaters in the same game seemingly every week.

Here’s what I just can’t get over when prognosticating the Hawkeyes 2010 chances…you can’t rely on two blocked FG’s nor can you rely on fourth quarter comeback after fourth quarter comeback.  There just HAS to be a reversion to the mean, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Iowa considering the mean should be around 9-3.  But there’s no way you can definitively claim this is a Big Ten championship worthy team because the margin of error between winning and losing was razor sharp last year, and it’s almost impossible to think, without some serious steps forward, that everything is going to break that way again.

Let me put it this way…if you’re trying to retire, what do you do?  Do you spend like sailors on leave your entire life and bank on hitting the lottery a few years before financial independence?  No.  You save every year.  You have a plan.  And last year, Iowa’s plan was the lottery scenario.  Can they reverse the trend this year?  Probably, I mean, their defense is fucking stacked, but it’s the offense that concerns me.

Like I alluded to before, the offensive line needs to be replaced.  Fortunately for Iowa, their coach is an offensive line genius who gets the most out of meager talent, but he’s definitely got his work cut out for him this year.  The defense should be able to keep them in games, but if Iowa’s going to be a serious contender for the Big Ten crown, they better get a better performance from Rick Six early on otherwise they might find themselves in some holes they can’t quite get out of like they could last year.

There are a few OK RB’s behind Stanzi in Adam Robinson, Brandon Wegher and the recently arrested Jewel Hampton and the WR’s are good with DJK (I’m not spelling that clusterfuck of a name) and the eloquently named Marvin McNutt along with TE Alan Reisner.  But this offense just doesn’t scream consistency.

So it’s basically back to 2009′s recipe for success…don’t let the other team score that much and pray that Stanzi either brings them to the promised land or doesn’t blow up with a series of success crippling interceptions.

Like I said before…when the margin for error is so slim, nobody has any idea what to expect.

The Schedule:

  • Sept. 4 Eastern Illinois
  • Sept. 11 Iowa State
  • Sept. 18 at Arizona
  • Sept. 25 Ball State
  • Oct. 2 Penn State
  • Oct. 9 OPEN DATE
  • Oct. 16 at Michigan
  • Oct. 23 Wisconsin
  • Oct. 30 Michigan State
  • Nov. 6 at Indiana
  • Nov. 13 at Northwestern
  • Nov. 20 Ohio State
  • Nov. 27 at Minnesota

Prediction:  9-3

In reality, this is pretty much where Iowa should’ve finished last year’s regular season.  I’m not sold on the offense being able to show great strides in consistent play and I’m not sold on the defense against Ohio State, Iowa’s biggest threat in the conference.  I’m also WAY more bullish on Wisconsin this year than I am on the Hawkeyes, and I see a few losses scattered in there due to the pressure of heightened expectations and gut feeling, which isn’t something to dismiss blindly considering nobody knows what to expect from this team.

The schedule is pretty nice considering Penn State, Wisky and the Bucks both travel to Iowa City but there are some roadblocks like having to travel to Arizona to face an improving Wildcats team as well as having to deal with Northwestern and Michigan on the road, two teams with schemes that gave Iowa trouble last year with motivation of their own.  I see a loss to either Ohio State and Wisky (Iowa will probably split these two dates), and losses to either Michigan, Northwestern or Arizona (pick two of three).

If Stanzi makes some big strides with decision making there’s enough talent to make a run at a Big Ten championship with an outside shot of getting into the national championship game, but I’m not nearly confident enough from what I saw last year to declare them a BCS lock.  I don’t mean to be a hater, but I’m just not sold.  This is a good team, but there’s not enough past performance to give me the confidence to throw them into the elite class with Florida, Texas and Alabama, three other teams with their own huge question marks.  I’m erring on the conservative side here and going with 9-3 and a Capital One Bowl.

And with that, we’re done with Iowa…now that wasn’t too bad, was it?

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